2017 Montana Legislature

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HOUSE JOINT RESOLUTION NO. 2

INTRODUCED BY J. ESSMANN

BY REQUEST OF THE REVENUE AND TRANSPORTATION INTERIM COMMITTEE

 

A JOINT RESOLUTION OF THE SENATE AND THE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES OF THE STATE OF MONTANA ESTABLISHING AN OFFICIAL ESTIMATE OF THE STATE'S GENERAL FUND REVENUE FOR FISCAL YEAR 2017 AND EACH FISCAL YEAR OF THE 2018-2019 BIENNIUM FOR THE PURPOSE OF ACHIEVING A BALANCED BUDGET AS REQUIRED BY ARTICLE VIII, SECTION 9, OF THE MONTANA CONSTITUTION; ACCEPTING A PRELIMINARY UNASSIGNED GENERAL FUND BALANCE; ESTABLISHING OFFICIAL ESTIMATES OF CERTAIN NONGENERAL FUND REVENUE; AND REQUESTING THAT THE GOVERNOR'S OFFICE OF BUDGET AND PROGRAM PLANNING USE THE REVENUE ESTIMATES CONTAINED IN THIS RESOLUTION AS OFFICIAL REVENUE ESTIMATES FOR FISCAL YEARS 2017, 2018, AND 2019.

 

     WHEREAS, Article VI, section 9, of the Montana Constitution requires the Governor to submit to the Legislature a budget for the ensuing fiscal period, containing in detail for all operating funds the proposed expenditures and estimated revenue of the state; and

     WHEREAS, Article VIII, section 9, of the Montana Constitution prohibits the Legislature from appropriating funds in excess of the anticipated revenue of the state; and

     WHEREAS, section 5-5-227(2), MCA, requires the Revenue and Transportation Interim Committee to estimate the amount of revenue projected to be available for legislative appropriation and to introduce a resolution setting forth the Committee's current revenue estimate; and

     WHEREAS, section 5-5-227(3), MCA, expresses the Legislature's intent that its revenue estimates and the underlying assumptions used to derive those estimates be used by all agencies in the development of fiscal notes; and

     WHEREAS, the Revenue and Transportation Interim Committee obtained the assistance of the Legislative Fiscal Analyst in the development of the revenue estimates; and

     WHEREAS, the Revenue and Transportation Interim Committee also obtained the assistance of Executive Branch agencies in the development of the revenue estimates; and

     WHEREAS, the Revenue and Transportation Interim Committee has adopted revenue estimates and the underlying assumptions used to derive those estimates for the general fund and for specific nongeneral fund sources that are significant in the development of the state budget for fiscal year 2017 and the 2018-2019 biennium; and

     WHEREAS, section 5-5-227(3), MCA, provides that the Revenue and Transportation Interim Committee's estimate, as introduced in the Legislature, constitutes the Legislature's current revenue estimate until amended or until final adoption of the estimate by both houses; and

     WHEREAS, the amount of estimated revenue and the general fund balance affects policy decisions of the Executive Branch and the Legislative Branch; and

     WHEREAS, the revenue estimates and the underlying assumptions contained in this resolution provide the basis for a comprehensive analysis of the state's revenue condition.

 

NOW, THEREFORE, BE IT RESOLVED BY THE SENATE AND THE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES OF THE STATE OF MONTANA:

     That the state general fund revenue for fiscal years 2017, 2018, and 2019 be estimated to be $2,194,337,000, $2,301,383,000, and $2,452,611,000 $2,212,592,186, $2,359,344,806, AND $2,476,395,000, respectively.

     BE IT FURTHER RESOLVED, that the Legislature accept for budget purposes the preliminary unassigned fiscal year 2016 fund balance of $255,110,000 for the general fund, prepared according to generally accepted accounting principles.

     BE IT FURTHER RESOLVED, that the Governor's Office of Budget and Program Planning use the revenue estimates and the underlying assumptions contained in this resolution as the official revenue estimates for fiscal years 2017, 2018, and 2019.

     GENERAL FUND REVENUE

The projections for general fund revenue for fiscal years 2017, 2018, and 2019 are based on the assumptions of the continuation of Montana and federal law as it existed on January 1, 2017. The revenue estimates contained in the following tables are based on the assumptions listed in the tables that follow the general fund estimates and the assumptions for each general fund revenue source (as adopted by the Revenue and Transportation Interim Committee) contained in the "Legislative Budget Analysis, 2019 Biennium, Volume 2 -- Revenue Estimates" prepared by the Legislative Fiscal Division.

            Current Law

            General Fund Revenue Estimates

            (In Millions of Dollars)

          Actual     Estimated     Estimated     Estimated

Source of Revenue     FY 2016     FY 2017     FY 2018     FY 2019

Largest Seven Sources

Individual Income Tax                                                                       1,184.828                     1,219.776             1,291.208                 1,378.482

                                                                                                           1,184.828                     1,238.516             1,320.815                1,404.438

Property Tax                                                                                         257.100                        260.150                279.620                    286.088

                                                                                                              257.100                        261.003                277.119                   286.326

Corporate Income Tax                                                                          118.387                        140.308                134.346                    164.575

                                                                                                              118.387                        139.952                168.762                   171.748

Vehicle Taxes & Fees                                                                          108.480                        109.200                112.700                    117.500

                                                                                                              108.480                        110.844                112.952                   114.509

Oil & Natural Gas Production Tax                                                          39.083                          44.821                  49.533                      54.875

                                                                                                                39.083                          45.289                  49.939                     48.914

Insurance Tax & License Fees                                                               69.255                          71.102                  72.951                      74.800

                                                                                                                69.255                          73.414                  76.000                     79.887

Video Gambling Tax                                                                               60.554                          62.522                  64.546                      65.801

                                                                                                                60.554                          59.280                  61.904                     64.516

Largest Seven Sources Subtotal                                                   1,837.687                     1,907.880             2,004.903                 2,142.122

                                                                                                           1,837.687                     1,928.299             2,067.491                2,170.338

Other Business Taxes

Driver's License Fee                                                                                4.345                             4.539                  4.370                          4.598

                                                                                                                 4.345                             4.938                  4.341                         5.007

Investment License Fee                                                                           7.212                             7.433                  7.750                          8.007

                                                                                                                 7.212                             7.454                  7.660                         7.994

Lodging Taxes                                                                                       21.493                           22.978                25.249                        27.659

                                                                                                               21.493                           22.196                23.399                       24.771

Public Contractors Tax                                                                            2.397                             2.510                  2.580                          2.664

                                                                                                                 2.397                             2.552                  2.540                         2.527

Railroad Car Tax                                                                                     3.594                             3.437                  3.457                          3.487

                                                                                                                 3.594                             3.387                  3.642                         3.905

Rental Car Sales Tax                                                                              3.878                             3.282                  3.379                          3.473

                                                                                                                 3.878                             3.310                  3.357                         3.658

Telecommunications Excise Tax                                                           16.775                           16.165                15.576                        15.009

                                                                                                               16.775                           16.089                15.570                       14.966

Other Business Taxes Subtotal                                                          59.694                           60.344                62.362                        64.897

                                                                                                               59.694                           59.926                60.508                 62.828      

Other Natural Resource Taxes                                                                                                                                         

Coal Severance Tax                                                                              14.236                           13.225                15.650                        15.724

                                                                                                               14.236                         113.577                15.460                       15.954

Electrical Energy Tax                                                                               4.536                             4.595                  4.709                          4.634

                                                                                                                 4.536                             4.448                  4.439                         4.524

Metalliferous Mines Tax                                                                           4.221                             4.129                  4.160                          4.314

                                                                                                                 4.221                             4.410                  4.274                         4.156

US Mineral Royalty                                                                                16.759                           19.610                20.391                        20.924

                                                                                                               16.759                           19.249                20.497                       21.229

Wholesale Energy Tax                                                                            3.516                             3.502                  3.406                          3.366

                                                                                                                 3.516                             3.539                  3.505                         3.537

Other Natural Resource Taxes Subtotal                                            43.269                           45.061                48.315                        48.962

                                                                                                               43.269                           45.223                48.175                 49.401      

Other Interest Earnings                                                                                                                                                     

Coal Trust Interest                                                                                 20.722                           19.893                20.451                        20.955

                                                                                                               20.722                           19.963                20.329                       20.307

Treasury Cash Account Interest                                                              3.961                             5.802                10.487                        18.286

                                                                                                                 3.961                             4.274                  7.577                       15.507

Other Interest Earnings Subtotal                                                       24.683                           25.695                30.938                        39.241

                                                                                                               24.683                           24.237                27.906                 35.814      

Other Consumption Taxes                                                                                                                                                

Beer Tax                                                                                                  3.027                             3.029                  3.030                          3.028

                                                                                                                 3.027                             3.051                  3.059                         3.064

Cigarette Tax                                                                                         31.103                           30.980                30.768                        30.534

                                                                                                               31.103                           30.924                30.718                       30.529

Liquor Excise & License Tax                                                                 19.776                           20.596                21.677                        22.683

                                                                                                               19.776                           21.359                22.265                       23.218

Liquor Profits                                                                                         11.000                           11.777                12.435                        13.085

                                                                                                               11.000                           11.500                12.000                       12.500

Lottery Profits                                                                                        11.963                           11.549                11.728                        12.188

                                                                                                               11.963                           12.363                12.363                       12.363

Tobacco Tax                                                                                            6.184                             6.329                  6.461                          6.593

                                                                                                                 6.184                             6.623                  6.815                         6.999

Wine Tax                                                                                                 2.373                             2.412                  2.479                          2.547

                                                                                                                 2.373                             2.484                  2.584                         2.674

Other Consumption Taxes Subtotal                                                  85.427                           86.673                88.577                        90.656

                                                                                                               85.427                           88.304                89.804                  91.348     

Other Sources                                                                                                                                                                    

All Other Revenue                                                                                 41.443                           42.518                43.292                        43.679

                                                                                                               41.443                           40.650                41.713                       42.968

Highway Patrol Fines                                                                               4.040                             4.187                  4.244                          4.293

                                                                                                                 4.040                             4.101                  4.155                         4.193

Nursing Facilities Fee                                                                              4.764                             4.526                  4.276                          4.244

                                                                                                                 4.764                             4.589                  4.277                         4.181

Public Institution Reimbursements                                                        16.910                           14.083                11.915                        12.017

                                                                                                               16.910                           14.162                12.694                       12.725

Tobacco Settlement                                                                                 3.371                             3.371                  2.561                          2.500

                                                                                                                 3.371                             3.101                  2.622                         2.599

Other Sources Subtotal                                                                       70.529                           68.685                66.288                        66.733

                                                                                                               70.529                           66.602                65.460                       66.667

Total General Fund                                                                       $2,121.288                    $2,194.337         $2,301.383                 $2,452.611

                                                                                                        $2,121.288                    $2,212.592         $2,359.345                $2,476.395

SIGNIFICANT ASSUMPTIONS FOR GENERAL FUND REVENUE ESTIMATES

Year      Assumption          2016     2017     2018     2019

Largest Seven Sources

     Individual Income Tax

CY     Wage & salary income growth                                                         3.2%                         4.0%                      5.1%                         5.0%

            3.3%                                                                                             4.5%                         5.3%                      5.2%

CY     Interest income growth                                                                    0.3%                         2.3%                    11.2%                       18.9%

            0.4%                                                                                             3.5%                       11.4%                    22.1%

CY     Dividend income growth                                                                 -4.5%                         1.1%                      3.8%                         2.5%

            -4.5%                                                                                            2.2%                         5.8%                      5.1%

CY     Taxable refunds growth                                                                   3.1%                         3.1%                      3.1%                         3.1%

            3.5%                                                                                             3.5%                         3.5%                      3.5%

CY     Alimony received growth                                                                 4.0%                         4.0%                      4.0%                         4.0%

CY     Net business growth                                                                        3.1%                        -2.2%                      4.4%                         2.6%

            2.5%                                                                                            -3.0%                         6.0%                      2.6%

CY     Capital gains income growth                                                          -2.9%                        -1.4%                      0.2%                         3.5%

            1.0%                                                                                             2.9%                        -1.2%                      3.6%

CY     Supplemental gains income growth                                                 0.0%                         0.0%                      0.0%                         0.0%

CY     Rents, royalties & partnership income growth                                 5.0%                         5.0%                      5.0%                         5.0%

            4.0%                                                                                             4.0%                         4.0%                      4.0%

CY     IRA income growth                                                                          7.4%                         8.0%                      6.8%                         6.1%

            7.5%                                                                                             8.9%                         7.1%                      6.0%

CY     Taxable pension income growth                                                      6.1%                         6.2%                      5.7%                         5.2%

            6.2%                                                                                             5.7%                         6.0%                      5.2%

CY     Taxable social security income growth                                          10.0%                       10.0%                    10.0%                       10.0%

CY     Farm income growth                                                                        0.0%                         0.0%                      0.0%                         0.0%

CY     Unemployment compensation growth                                             0.0%                         0.0%                      0.0%                         0.0%

CY     Other income growth                                                                       0.0%                         0.0%                      0.0%                         0.0%

CY     Total additions (Millions)                                                           $539.904                   $557.705               $575.506                   $593.307

            $794.451                                                                                $780.254                   $774.696               $772.239

CY     Total adjustments (Millions)                                                      $785.677                   $782.441               $770.951                   $764.620

            $543.258                                                                                $564.809                   $587.542               $611.536

CY     Federal inflation factor                                                                     0.5%                         0.8%                      2.5%                         2.5%

                                                                                                                                                                                   1.9%

CY     State inflation factor                                                                         1.0%                         2.6%                      2.4%                         2.4%

            1.0%                                                                                             2.5%                         1.9%                      2.5%

CY     Full-year resident adjustment                                                      100.4%                     100.8%                  101.6%                     102.4%

            100.5%                                                                                     101.6%                     102.6%                  103.5%

CY     Nonresident adjustment                                                               107.2%                     107.2%                  107.2%                     107.2%

CY     Elderly homeowner/renter credits (Millions)                                  $7.424                       $7.024                   $6.624                       $6.224

CY     All other credits (Millions)                                                           $53.295                     $56.431                 $59.895                     $63.478

            $53.570                                                                                    $56.662                     $59.779                 $63.490

FY     Audit, penalty & interest collections (Millions)                                                              $45.708                 $48.404                     $51.545

                                                                                                             $45.997                     $48.953                 $51.958

FY     RTIC Adjustment (Millions)                                                                                         -$10.910                -$14.543                   -$14.719

     Property Tax                                                                                                                                                                  

FY     Class 1 taxable value (Millions)                                                                                      $4.080                   $4.274                       $4.156

FY     Class 2 taxable value (Millions)                                                                                    $19.454                 $21.301                     $20.434

FY     Class 3 taxable value (Millions)                                                                                  $142.282               $143.179                   $144.082

FY     Class 4 taxable value (Millions)                                                                               $1,552.031            $1,649.218                $1,669.300

FY     Class 5 taxable value (Millions)                                                                                    $46.795                 $48.069                     $49.378

FY     Class 7 taxable value (Millions)                                                                                      $1.139                   $1.091                       $1.046

FY     Class 8 taxable value (Millions)                                                                                  $156.987               $162.581                   $168.375

FY     Class 9 taxable value (Millions)                                                                                  $478.417               $524.003                   $573.934

FY     Class 10 taxable value (Millions)                                                                                    $4.920                   $4.918                       $4.916

FY     Class 12 taxable value (Millions)                                                                                  $85.934                 $96.946                     $94.838

                                                                                                                                                                            $108.315

FY     Class 13 taxable value (Millions)                                                                                $181.614               $185.116                   $188.686

FY     Class 14 taxable value (Millions)                                                                                  $17.670                 $18.496                     $19.361

FY     Class 15 taxable value (Millions)                                                                                    $2.355                   $2.379                       $2.404

FY     Abatement value (Millions)                                                                                           $22.089                 $23.466                     $24.116

                                                                                                                                                                              $24.227

FY     TIF Value (Millions)                                                                                                      $54.331                 $50.978                     $50.662

FY     RTIC Adjustment (Millions)                                                                                           -$0.852                   $2.861                       $1.427

     Corporate Income Tax                                                                                                                                                   

CY     WTI price ($/barrel)                                                                     $43.146                     $50.833                 $55.461                     $62.195

            $43.206                                                                                    $55.385                     $54.875                 $63.562

CY     Domestic crude price ($/barrel)                                                  $41.731                     $48.316                 $53.487                     $60.608

            $42.341                                                                                    $53.864                     $53.484                 $60.436

CY     Montana retail sales (Millions)                                                    $18,085                     $18,576                 $19,314                     $20,100

            $18,194                                                                                    $18,895                     $19,622                 $20,516

CY     Montana median home price ($)                                               $217,266                   $224,844               $232,305                   $239,189

            $220,366                                                                                $234,167                   $241,583               $247,719

CY     Montana population (Millions)                                                         1.043                         1.052                     1.061                         1.069

            1.044                                                                                            1.054                         1.063                     1.071

CY     Wholesale employment (Thousands)                                           17.325                       17.135                   17.134                       17.193

            17.400                                                                                        17.408                       17.498                   17.552

CY     3-month commercial paper                                                            0.52%                       0.92%                    1.64%                       2.56%

            0.52%                                                                                         1.13%                       2.01%                    2.94%

FY     Audit, penalty & interest collections (Millions)                                                              $18.237                 $18.891                     $19.925

                                                                                                             $11.237                     $19.053                 $20.833

FY     Refunds (Millions)                                                                                                       -$31.391                -$21.797                   -$22.990

                                                                                                            -$31.391                   -$21.984                -$24.038

FY     RTIC Adjustment (Millions)                                                                                           -$4.808                -$27.258                     -$2.496

FY     CATTLE PRICE ADJUSTMENT (THOUSANDS)                                                      $593.250               $197.750                                  

     Vehicle Taxes & Fees                                                                                                                                                    

FY     Montana new vehicle sales (Thousands)                                                                      68.218                   67.551                        66.538

                                                                                                               66.689                       67.076                   66.573

FY     US new vehicle sales (Millions)                                                                                     17.490                   17.608                        17.562

                                                                                                               17.577                       17.497                   17.571

FY     US total vehicle stock (Millions)                                                                                   278.902                 284.096                      288.257

                                                                                                             278.954                     284.083                 288.221

FY     RTIC Adjustment (Millions)                                                                                          ($1.826)                 ($0.266)                       $2.975

     Oil & Natural Gas Production Tax                                                                                                                                  

CY     WTI price ($/barrel)                                                                    $43.146                     $50.833                 $55.461                      $62.195

            $43.206                                                                                    $55.385                     $54.875                 $63.562

CY     Montana oil price ratio                                                                   0.820                         0.820                     0.820                          0.820

            0.813

CY     Total oil production (Million barrels)                                             22.459                       20.087                   18.514                        17.190

            23.065                                                                                        20.479                       18.806                   17.475

CY     Holiday oil production (Million barrels)                                           1.117                         0.152                     0.142                          0.132

            1.250                                                                                            0.149                         0.138                     0.128

CY     Henry Hub price ($/MCF)                                                             $2.550                       $3.390                   $2.952                        $2.931

            $2.493                                                                                        $3.090                       $2.801                   $2.775

CY     Montana natural gas price ratio                                                     0.765                         0.765                     0.765                          0.765

            0.504

CY     Total natural gas production (Million MCFs)                                51.435                       45.953                   40.076                        34.994

            74.555                                                                                        60.703                       58.508                   53.853

CY     Holiday natural gas production (Million MCFs)                              0.904                         0.952                     1.144                          1.097

            0.655                                                                                            0.731                         1.165                     1.168

FY     RTIC Adjustment (Millions)                                                                                           -$1.188                   $1.873                       $7.042

     Insurance Tax & License Fees                                                                                                                                      

FY     Montana PCE Finance & Insurance (Millions)                                                                $2,750                   $2,838                       $2,955

                                                                                                                  2,761                       $2,867                   $3,039

FY     RTIC Adjustment (Millions)                                                                                            $0.119                  -$0.276                     -$1.244

     Video Gambling Tax                                                                                                                                                      

FY     Montana personal income (Millions)                                                                             $45,117                 $47,243                     $49,681

FY     RTIC Adjustment (Millions)                                                                                            $0.263                   $0.034                     -$1.294

FY     TIME SERIES                                                                                                                   2017                      2018                          2019

FY     MONTANA POPULATION (MILLIONS)                                                                           1.049                     1.058                         1.067

Other Business Taxes                                                                                                                                                      

     Driver's License Fee                                                                                                                                                      

CY     Montana population age 16 and over (Millions)                                                               0.848                     0.855                         0.860

                                                                                                                  0.849                         0.856                     0.862

FY     RTIC Adjustment (Millions)                                                                                           -$0.392                   $0.034                     -$0.399

     Investment License Fee                                                                                                                                                 

FY     Montana PCE Finance & Insurance (Millions)                                                                $2,750                   $2,838                       $2,955

                                                                                                               $2,761                       $2,867                   $3,039

FY     RTIC Adjustment (Millions)                                                                                            $0.002                   $0.147                       $0.176

     Lodging Taxes                                                                                                                                                               

FY     US consumer spending on accommodations (Billions)                                                     $130                      $137                          $142

                                                                                                                   $127                          $134                      $142

FY     RTIC Adjustment (Millions)                                                                                            $0.311                   $1.412                       $2.823

     Public Contractors Tax                                                                                                                                                  

FY     Highway payments (Millions)                                                                                             $355                      $364                          $373

FY     Other payments (Millions)                                                                                                 $150                      $150                          $150

FY     RTIC Adjustment (Millions)                                                                                           -$0.043                   $0.040                       $0.136

     Railroad Car Tax                                                                                                                                                            

FY     Montana retail sales (Millions)                                                                                      $17,653                 $17,919                     $18,309

                                                                                                             $17,653                     $17,914                 $18,613

FY     RTIC Adjustment (Millions)                                                                                            $0.050                  -$0.187                     -$0.304

     Rental Car Sales Tax                                                                                                                                                     

FY     Montana PCE Transportation (Millions)                                                                            $943                      $953                       $1,024

                                                                                                                   $963                          $973                   $1,044

FY     RTIC Adjustment (Millions)                                                                                            $0.053                   $0.102                     -$0.103

     Telecommunications Excise Tax                                                                                                                                   

FY     Montana population age 16 and over (Millions)                                                               0.844                     0.851                          0.857

                                                                                                                  0.845                         0.852                     0.859

CY     Landline %                                                                                        52%                          46%                       39%                          33%

CY     Cell Phone %                                                                                    95%                          95%                       96%                          96%

CY     Prepaid smartphone penetration                                                      35%                          35%                       35%                          35%

FY     RTIC Adjustment (Millions)                                                                                            $0.087                   $0.024                       $0.063

Other Natural Resource Taxes                                                                                                                                        

     Coal Severance Tax                                                                                                                                                      

CY     Price ($/ton)                                                                                 $14.09                       $14.47                   $14.83                        $15.09

            $15.87                                                                                        $16.38                       $16.94                   $17.30

CY     Production (Million tons)                                                              30.911                       30.143                   31.616                        32.119

FY     RTIC Adjustment (Millions)                                                                                           $0.287                   $0.949                        $0.577

     Electrical Energy Tax                                                                                                                                                     

FY     Taxable Production (kwh)                                                                                             22,242                   22,197                        22,620

FY     RTIC Adjustment (Millions)                                                                                            $0.146                   $0.269                       $0.110

     Metalliferous Mines Tax                                                                                                                                                 

CY     Price: Copper ($/lb)                                                                         $2.16                         $2.19                     $2.21                         $2.23

CY     Price: Silver ($/oz)                                                                             $15                            $15                        $15                            $15

CY     Price: Gold ($/oz)                                                                          $1,139                       $1,111                   $1,085                       $1,057

CY     Price: Moly ($/lb)                                                                                  $9                            $10                        $10                            $10

CY     Price: Palladium ($/oz)                                                                     $602                          $629                      $638                          $647

CY     Price: Platinum ($/oz)                                                                      $911                          $953                      $997                       $1,044

FY     RTIC Adjustment (Millions)                                                                                           -$0.281                  -$0.114                       $0.158

     US Mineral Royalty                                                                                                                                                        

FFY     Oil price ($/barrel)                                                                      $44.17                       $53.49                   $57.75                        $64.43

                                                                                                               $47.14                       $47.51                   $53.09

FFY     Oil production (Million barrels)                                                     2.337                         1.751                     1.542                          1.332

                                                                                                                  2.310                         2.168                     2.027

FFY     Coal price ($/ton)                                                                       $18.36                       $19.73                   $20.53                        $20.99

                                                                                                               $20.88                       $21.90                   $22.51

FFY     Coal production (Million tons)                                                    16.170                       15.679                   15.371                        15.717

                                                                                                               15.679                       15.371                   15.717

FFY     Natural gas price ($/MCF)                                                            $1.85                         $2.75                     $2.48                          $2.40

                                                                                                                  $2.56                         $2.38                     $2.30

FFY     Natural gas production (Million MCFs)                                       10.287                       10.287                   10.287                        10.287

                                                                                                                  6.616                         6.616                     6.616

FFY     Rent and bonus payments (Millions)                                                                            $4.795                   $4.795                       $4.795

                                                                                                               $2.821                       $3.175                   $3.175

FY     RTIC Adjustment (Millions)                                                                                           -$0.790                  -$0.102                       $0.110

     Wholesale Energy Tax                                                                                                                                                   

FY     Production (kwh)                                                                                                           24,307                   24,073                        24,296

FY     RTIC Adjustment (Millions)                                                                                           -$0.036                  -$0.099                     -$0.171

Other Interest Earnings                                                                                                                                                    

     Coal Trust Interest                                                                                                                                                         

FY     Short-term interest rates                                                                                                  0.63%                    1.18%                       1.97%

FY     Long-term interest rates                                                                                                  3.49%                    3.67%                       3.85%

FY     RTIC Adjustment (Millions)                                                                                            $1.185                  -$0.038                     -$1.152

     Treasury Cash Account Interest                                                                                                                                    

FY     Short-term interest rates                                                                                                  0.81%                    1.36%                       2.15%

                                                                                                                0.73%                       1.43%                    2.28%

FY     Average balance (Millions)                                                                                         $930.216               $940.191                   $930.992

                                                                                                           $589.483                   $530.235               $680.590

FY     RTIC Adjustment (Millions)                                                                                            $2.480                   $6.429                       $9.982

Other Consumption Taxes                                                                                                                                               

     Beer Tax                                                                                                                                                                        

FY     Montana PCE food (Millions)                                                                                          $4,604                   $4,797                       $4,993

                                                                                                               $4,666                       $4,876                   $5,092

FY     Montana population age 21 and above (Millions)                                                            0.783                     0.789                          0.795

                                                                                                                  0.783                         0.791                     0.797

FY     RTIC Adjustment (Millions)                                                                                           -$0.018                  -$0.024                     -$0.030

     Cigarette Tax                                                                                                                                                                 

FY     U.S. Consumer spending on tobacco (Millions)                                                             $1.275                   $1.318                       $1.370

            (BILLIONS)                                                                                   $108                          $110                      $112

FY     CPI for tobacco                                                                                                                  106                        108                             110

                                                                                                                     135                            142                        150

FY     Montana population age 18 and above (Millions)                                                            0.822                     0.829                          0.835

                                                                                                                  0.823                         0.830                     0.836

FY     RTIC Adjustment (Millions)                                                                                            $0.079                   $0.079                       $0.030

     Liquor Excise & License Tax                                                                                                                                         

FY     Montana PCE food (Millions)                                                                                          $4,604                   $4,797                       $4,993

                                                                                                               $4,666                       $4,876                   $5,092

FY     RTIC Adjustment (Millions)                                                                                           -$0.720                  -$0.483                     -$0.353

     Liquor Profits                                                                                                                                                                  

FY     Montana PCE food (Millions)                                                                                          $4,604                   $4,797                       $4,993

                                                                                                               $4,666                       $4,876                   $5,092

FY     RTIC Adjustment (Millions)                                                                                            $0.277                   $0.435                       $0.585

     Lottery Profits                                                                                                                                                                 

FY     Montana population age 18 and above (Millions)                                                            0.822                     0.829                          0.835

                                                                                                                  0.823                         0.830                     0.836

FY     Short-term interest rates                                                                                                  0.18%                    0.19%                       0.19%

                                                                                                                0.73%                       1.43%                    2.28%

FY     RTIC Adjustment (Millions)                                                                                          ($0.814)                 ($0.636)                    ($0.175)

     Tobacco Tax                                                                                                                                                                  

FY     Montana population age 18 and above (Millions)                                                            0.822                     0.829                          0.835

                                                                                                                  0.823                         0.830                     0.836

FY     Montana PCE (Millions)                                                                                              $62,096                 $64,763                      $67,452

                                                                                                             $63,413                     $66,320                 $69,369

FY     RTIC Adjustment (Millions)                                                                                          ($0.253)                 ($0.293)                    ($0.327)

     Wine Tax                                                                                                                                                                        

FY     Montana population age 21 and above (Millions)                                                            0.783                     0.789                          0.795

                                                                                                                  0.783                         0.791                     0.797

FY     RTIC Adjustment (Millions)                                                                                          ($0.065)                 ($0.090)                    ($0.109)

Other Sources                                                                                                                                                                   

     All Other Revenue                                                                                                                                                         

FY     Time series                                                                                                                            2017                   2018                           2019

FY     RTIC Adjustment (Millions)                                                                                               $1.907                $1.682                         $1.022

     Highway Patrol Fines                                                                                                                                                     

FY     Time series                                                                                                                            2017                   2018                           2019

FY     RTIC Adjustment (Millions)                                                                                               $0.086                $0.089                         $0.100

     Nursing Facilities Fee                                                                                                                                                    

FY     Time series                                                                                                                            2017                   2018                           2019

FY     RTIC Adjustment (Millions)                                                                                             ($0.063)              ($0.001)                        $0.063

     Public Institution Reimbursements                                                                                                                                 

FY     Montana nursing facility residents                                                                                       4,510                  4,471                           4,432

FY     RTIC Adjustment (Millions)                                                                                             ($0.079)              ($0.779)                      ($0.708)

     Tobacco Settlement                                                                                                                                                       

FY     Volume (Millions)                                                                                                                 0.219                  0.211                           0.202

FY     Inflation Adjustment                                                                                                              3.0%                   3.0%                           3.0%

FY     RTIC Adjustment (Millions)                                                                                               $0.271               ($0.061)                      ($0.099)

SELECTED NONGENERAL FUND REVENUE

The estimates for selected nongeneral fund revenue for fiscal year 2017 and the 2018-2019 biennium are based on the assumptions of a continuation of Montana law as it existed on January 1, 2017. The revenue estimates contained in the following tables are based on the assumptions listed in the tables that follow the nongeneral fund estimates and the assumptions for each nongeneral fund revenue source contained in the "Legislative Budget Analysis, 2019 Biennium, Volume 2 -- Revenue Estimates" prepared by the Legislative Fiscal Division.

Current Law

Selected Nongeneral Fund Revenue Estimates

(In Millions of Dollars)

          Actual     Estimated     Estimated     Estimated

Source of Revenue     FY 2016     FY 2017     FY 2018     FY 2019

Property Tax: 6 Mill                                                                                 16.755                     17.149                        18.161                   18.649

                                                                                                                                                 18.209                       18.780  

Natural Resource Taxes                                                                                                                                                        

Federal Forest Receipts                                                                          15.939                       2.505                          2.654                     2.863

Resource Indemnity Tax                                                                           2.335                       2.357                          2.324                     2.360

            2.335                                                                                             2.490                       2.591                          2.649

Natural Resource Taxes Subtotal                                                        18.274                       4.861                          4.978                     5.222

            18.274                                                                                           4.995                       5.245                         5.512  

Interest Earnings                                                                                                                                                                   

Capital Land Grant Interest and Income                                                    1.510                       1.112                          1.171                     1.393

Common School Interest and Income                                                     47.009                     41.663                        40.722                   41.786

            47.009                                                                                         41.166                     39.118                        38.781

Cultural Trust Interest                                                                                0.485                       0.469                          0.504                     0.543

            0.485                                                                                             0.488                       0.478                          0.468

Deaf & Blind Interest and Income                                                              0.344                       0.319                          0.319                     0.339

            0.344                                                                                             0.328                       0.315                          0.321

Economic Development Trust                                                                   3.171                       3.352                          3.785                     4.285

            3.171                                                                                             3.460                       3.624                          3.803

Parks Trust Interest                                                                                   0.900                       0.884                          0.956                     1.035

            0.900                                                                                             0.928                       0.914                          0.901

Pine Hills Interest and Income                                                                   0.392                       0.370                          0.361                     0.385

            0.392                                                                                             0.379                       0.357                          0.368

Regional Water Trust Interest                                                                   3.307                       3.136                          3.325                     3.536

            3.307                                                                                             3.165                       3.095                          3.033

Resource Indemnity Trust Interest                                                            3.973                       3.530                          3.707                     3.892

            3.973                                                                                             3.750                       3.547                          3.346

Tobacco Trust Interest                                                                              9.766                       9.109                          9.670                   10.310

            9.766                                                                                             9.368                       9.152                          8.968

Treasure State Endowment Trust Interest                                                 7.009                       7.270                          8.019                     8.887

            7.009                                                                                             7.407                       7.524                          7.671

Interest Earnings Subtotal                                                                    77.866                     71.215                        72.539                   76.392

            77.866                                                                                         71.551                     69.295                       69.052  

Consumption Taxes                                                                                                                                                              

Diesel Tax                                                                                               73.415                     73.423                        74.765                   76.134

Diesel Storage Tank Tax                                                                           2.798                       2.927                          2.985                     3.045

Gasoline Tax                                                                                         144.544                   148.537                      145.230                 145.344

Gasoline Storage Tank Tax                                                                       4.059                       3.926                          3.897                     3.898

GVW and Other Fees                                                                              35.034                     35.241                        35.455                   35.675

Consumption Taxes Subtotal                                                             259.850                   264.054                      262.333                 264.097

            259.850                                                                                     264.054                   262.333                      264.097 

Total of Selected Nongeneral Fund Sources                                  $372.746                 $357.279                    $358.011               $364.360

            $372.746                                                                                 $357.748                 $355.082                    $357.440

SELECTED ASSUMPTIONS FOR NONGENERAL FUND REVENUE ESTIMATES

Year     Assumption     2017     2018     2019

     Property Tax: 6 Mill

FY     Taxable Value                                                                                          $2,693.678                      $2,861.573                       $2,940.910

                                                                                                                                                                    $2,954.388

FY     TIF Value (Millions)                                                                                        $54.331                           $50.978                            $50.662

FY     Abatement value (Millions)                                                                            $22.089                           $23.466                            $24.116

                                                                                                                                                                         $24.227 

Natural Resource Taxes                                                                                                                                                                                     

     Federal Forest Receipts                                                                                                                                                                                   

FY     Total Montana Receipts (Millions)                                                                   $2.505                             $2.654                              $2.863

     Resource Indemnity Tax                                                                                                                                                                                  

FY     Coal Receipts (Millions)                                                                                   $2.111                             $2.079                              $2.114

            $2.244                                                                                                           $2.346                             $2.404

FY     Other Receipts (Millions)                                                                                 $0.245                             $0.245                        $0.245      

Interest Earnings                                                                                                                                                                                                 

     Capital Land Grant Interest and Income                                                                                                                                                          

FY     Lease Total (Millions)                                                                                      $0.915                             $0.876                              $0.889

FY     Permanent Fund Total (Millions)                                                                     $1.112                             $1.171                              $1.393

            $1.021                                                                                                           $1.099                             $1.314

FY     Administration Costs (Millions)                                                                       ($0.825)                           ($0.804)                           ($0.810)

     Common School Interest and Income                                                                                                                                                              

FY     TFBP Long-Term Interest Rate                                                                         3.50%                              3.68%                              3.86%

            3.57%                                                                                                             3.41%                              3.24%

FY     Short-Term Interest Rate                                                                                   0.63%                              1.18%                              1.97%

     Cultural Trust Interest                                                                                            0.73%                              1.43%                         2.28%     

FY     TFBP Long-Term Interest Rate                                                                         3.43%                              3.61%                              3.79%

            3.57%                                                                                                             3.40%                              3.24%

FY     Short-Term Interest Rate                                                                                   0.63%                              1.18%                              1.97%

     Deaf & Blind Interest and Income                                                                          0.73%                              1.43%                         2.28%     

FY     TFBP Long-Term Interest Rate                                                                         3.50%                              3.68%                              3.86%

            3.57%                                                                                                             3.41%                              3.24%

FY     Short-Term Interest Rate                                                                                   0.63%                              1.18%                              1.97%

     Economic Development Trust                                                                                0.73%                              1.43%                         2.28%     

FY     TFBP Long-Term Interest Rate                                                                         3.30%                              3.47%                              3.64%

            3.38%                                                                                                             3.26%                              3.14%

FY     Short-Term Interest Rate                                                                                   0.63%                              1.18%                              1.97%

     Parks Trust Interest                                                                                                0.73%                              1.43%                         2.28%     

FY     TFBP Long-Term Interest Rate                                                                         3.43%                              3.60%                              3.78%

            3.59%                                                                                                             3.42%                              3.26%

FY     Short-Term Interest Rate                                                                                   0.63%                              1.18%                              1.97%

     Pine Hills Interest and Income                                                                               0.73%                              1.43%                         2.28%     

FY     TFBP Long-Term Interest Rate                                                                         3.50%                              3.68%                              3.86%

            3.57%                                                                                                             3.41%                              3.24%

FY     Short-Term Interest Rate                                                                                   0.63%                              1.18%                              1.97%

     Regional Water Trust Interest                                                                                0.73%                              1.43%                         2.28%     

FY     TFBP Long-Term Interest Rate                                                                         3.36%                              3.52%                              3.70%

            3.40%                                                                                                             3.28%                              3.15%

FY     Short-Term Interest Rate                                                                                   0.63%                              1.18%                              1.97%

     Resource Indemnity Trust Interest                                                                         0.73%                              1.43%                         2.28%     

FY     TFBP Long-Term Interest Rate                                                                         3.53%                              3.71%                              3.89%

            3.75%                                                                                                             3.55%                              3.35%

FY     Short-Term Interest Rate                                                                                   0.63%                              1.18%                              1.97%

     Tobacco Trust Interest                                                                                           0.73%                              1.43%                         2.28%     

FY     TFBP Long-Term Interest Rate                                                                         3.29%                              3.45%                              3.62%

            3.35%                                                                                                             3.24%                              3.12%

FY     Short-Term Interest Rate                                                                                   0.63%                              1.18%                              1.97%

     Treasure State Endowment Trust Interest                                                             0.73%                              1.43%                         2.28%     

FY     TFBP Long-Term Interest Rate                                                                         3.36%                              3.52%                              3.70%

            3.47%                                                                                                             3.33%                              3.19%

FY     Short-Term Interest Rate                                                                                   0.63%                              1.18%                              1.97%

            0.73%                                                                                                             1.43%                              2.28%

Consumption Taxes                                                                                                                                                                                       

     Diesel Tax                                                                                                                                                                                                   

FY     Time Series                                                                                                      2017                                2018                              2019

     Diesel Storage Tank Tax                                                                                                                                                                            

FY     Time Series                                                                                                      2017                                2018                              2019

     Gasoline Tax                                                                                                                                                                                               

FY     Time Series                                                                                                      2017                                2018                              2019

     Gasoline Storage Tank Tax                                                                                                                                                                        

FY     Time Series                                                                                                      2017                                2018                              2019

     GVW and Other Fees                                                                                                                                                                                 

FY     Time Series                                                                                                      2017                                2018                              2019

- END -

 


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