(Primary Sponsor)            _____________ joint resolution NO. _____________

INTRODUCED BY _________________________________________________

By Request of the Revenue Interim Committee

 

A joint resolution of the Senate and the House of Representatives of the state of montana establishing an official estimate of the state's general fund revenue for fiscal year 2021 and each fiscal year of the 2022-2023 biennium for the purpose of achieving a balanced budget as required by article viii, section 9, of the montana constitution; accepting a preliminary unassigned general fund balance; establishing official estimates of certain nongeneral fund revenue; and requesting that the governor's office of budget and program planning use the revenue estimates contained in this resolution as official estimates for fiscal years 2021, 2022, and 2023.

 

WHEREAS, Article VI, section 9, of the Montana Constitution requires the Governor to submit to the Legislature a budget for the ensuing fiscal period, containing in detail for all operating funds the proposed expenditures and estimated revenue of the state; and

WHEREAS, Article VIII, section 9, of the Montana Constitution prohibits the Legislature from appropriating funds in excess of the anticipated revenue of the state; and

WHEREAS, section 5-5-227(2), MCA, requires the Revenue Interim Committee to estimate the amount of revenue projected to be available for legislative appropriation and to introduce a resolution setting forth the Committee's current revenue estimate; and

WHEREAS, section 5-5-227(3), MCA, expresses the Legislature's intent that its revenue estimates and the underlying assumptions used to derive those estimates be used by all agencies in the development of fiscal notes; and

WHEREAS, the Revenue Interim Committee obtained the assistance of the Legislative Fiscal Analyst in the development of the revenue estimates; and

WHEREAS, the Revenue Interim Committee also obtained the assistance of Executive Branch agencies in the development of the revenue estimates; and

WHEREAS, the Revenue Interim Committee has adopted revenue estimates and the underlying assumptions used to derive those estimates for the general fund and for specific nongeneral fund sources that are significant in the development of the state budget for fiscal year 2021 and the 2022-2023 biennium; and

WHEREAS, section 5-5-227(3), MCA, provides that the Revenue Interim Committee's estimate, as introduced in the Legislature, constitutes the Legislature's current revenue estimate until amended or until final adoption of the estimate by both houses; and

WHEREAS, the amount of estimated revenue and the general fund balance affects policy decisions of the Executive Branch and the Legislative Branch; and

WHEREAS, the revenue estimates and the underlying assumptions contained in this resolution provide the basis for a comprehensive analysis of the state's revenue condition.

 

Now, therefore, be it resolved by the Senate and the House of Representatives OF THE STATE OF MONTANA:

That the state general fund revenue for fiscal years 2021, 2022, and 2023 be estimated to be $2,469,233,000, $2,537,695,000, and $2,647,666,000, respectively.

BE IT FURTHER RESOLVED, that the Legislature accept for budget purposes the preliminary unassigned fiscal year 2020 fund balance of $452,411,472 for the general fund, prepared according to generally accepted accounting principles.

BE IT FURTHER RESOLVED, that the Governor's Office of Budget and Program Planning use the revenue estimates and the underlying assumptions contained in this resolution as the official revenue estimates for fiscal years 2021, 2022, and 2023.

GENERAL FUND REVENUE

The projections for general fund revenue for fiscal years 2021, 2022, and 2023 are based on the assumptions of the continuation of Montana and federal law as it existed on January 1, 2021. The revenue estimates contained in the following tables are based on the assumptions listed in the tables that follow the general fund estimates and the assumptions for each general fund revenue source (as adopted by the Revenue Interim Committee) contained in the "Legislative Budget Analysis, 2023 Biennium, Volume 2 -- Revenue Estimates" prepared by the Legislative Fiscal Division.

Current Law

General Fund Revenue Estimates

(In Millions of Dollars)

Actual

Estimated

Estimated

Estimated

Source of Revenue

FY 2020

FY 2021

FY 2022

FY 2023

Largest Seven Sources

Individual Income Tax

$1,435.240

$1,404.584

$1,443.769

$1,523.161

Property Tax

 308.610

 313.021

 333.017

 339.825

Corporation Income Tax

 187.358

 156.256

 163.528

 168.808

Vehicle Taxes & Fees

 108.482

 109.273

 110.402

 111.384

Oil & Natural Gas Production Tax

 38.380

 36.488

 40.402

 41.002

Insurance Tax & License Fees

 82.489

 86.072

 84.780

 87.767

Video Gambling Tax

 57.447

 60.320

 63.336

 66.503

Largest Seven Sources Subtotal

 2,218.007

 2,166.012

 2,239.233

 2,338.449

 

Other Business Taxes

Driver's License Fee

 4.410

 4.029

 4.053

 4.071

Investment License Fee

 15.711

 16.385

 16.524

 16.866

Lodging Taxes

 25.058

 20.878

 30.589

 36.378

Public Contractors Tax

 6.729

 4.987

 5.103

 5.206

Railroad Car Tax

 4.294

 4.305

 4.393

 5.140

Rental Car Sales Tax

 4.224

 3.823

 4.727

 5.219

Telecommunications Excise Tax

 11.788

 10.954

 10.085

 9.190

Other Business Taxes Subtotal

 72.213

 65.361

 75.473

 82.070

Other Natural Resource Taxes

Coal Severance Tax

 10.920

 10.966

 10.812

 10.648

Electrical Energy Tax

 3.910

 4.480

 4.223

 4.203

Metalliferous Mines Tax

 8.724

 9.922

 8.038

 8.222

US Mineral Royalty

 18.527

 18.729

 17.909

 17.221

Wholesale Energy Tax

 3.351

 3.467

 3.460

 3.466

Other Natural Resource Taxes Subtotal

 45.432

 47.563

 44.442

 43.760

Other Interest Earnings

Coal Trust Interest

 21.600

 17.904

 16.828

 15.700

Treasury Cash Account Interest

 18.597

 2.740

 1.582

 1.724

Other Interest Earnings Subtotal

 40.197

 20.645

 18.409

 17.424

Other Consumption Taxes

Beer Tax

 3.167

 3.102

 3.111

 3.117

Cigarette Tax

 26.983

 27.045

 26.558

 26.113

Liquor Excise & License Tax

 23.786

 24.930

 26.426

 28.014

Liquor Profits

 18.080

 15.800

 15.800

 16.900

Lottery Profits

 8.073

 13.144

 13.021

 13.145

Tobacco Tax

 5.754

 5.724

 5.627

 5.565

Wine Tax

 2.522

 2.579

 2.637

 2.697

Other Consumption Taxes Subtotal

 88.364

 92.323

 93.179

 95.550

Other Sources

All Other Revenue

 46.062

 44.685

 44.075

 46.685

Highway Patrol Fines

 3.458

 3.691

 3.670

 3.607

Nursing Facilities Fee

 4.188

 3.992

 3.896

 3.799

Public Institution Reimbursements

 12.745

 12.555

 12.382

 13.410

Tobacco Settlement

 2.654

 12.406

 2.936

 2.912

Other Sources Subtotal

 69.107

 77.329

 66.958

 70.413

Total General Fund

$2,533.321

$2,469.233

$2,537.695

$2,647.666

 

SIGNIFICANT ASSUMPTIONS FOR GENERAL FUND REVENUE ESTIMATES

Year   Assumption                                                                            2020     2021    2022            2023

Largest Seven Sources

Individual Income Tax

CY

Wage & salary income growth

-0.6%

4.2%

3.6%

3.8%

CY

Interest income growth

-2.8%

-1.2%

-0.1%

0.7%

CY

Dividend income growth

0.6%

-5.6%

1.4%

5.5%

CY

Taxable refunds growth

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

CY

Alimony received growth

-7.1%

-7.1%

-7.1%

-7.1%

CY

Net business growth

0.5%

2.1%

-0.1%

2.3%

CY

Capital gains income growth

-2.1%

-1.6%

-1.1%

1.8%

CY

Supplemental gains income growth

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

CY

Rents, royalties & partnership income growth

-1.2%

3.1%

5.2%

6.7%

CY

IRA income growth

-13.2%

29.5%

5.1%

4.9%

CY

Taxable pension income growth

5.5%

5.0%

4.9%

4.5%

CY

Taxable social security income growth

7.1%

6.1%

4.4%

4.3%

CY

Farm income growth

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

CY

Unemployment compensation growth

1076.4%

-91.5%

0.0%

0.0%

CY

Other income growth

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

CY

Total additions (Millions)

$838.411

$837.533

$835.456

$834.458

CY

Total adjustments (Millions)

$518.665

$533.578

$548.492

$563.406

CY

Total reductions (Millions)

$1,903.006

$1,996.333

$2,094.979

$2,199.011

CY

Federal inflation factor

1.6%

1.9%

2.0%

1.6%

CY

State inflation factor

0.9%

3.0%

2.3%

1.8%

CY

Full year resident adjustment

97.0%

102.3%

100.7%

100.7%

CY

Non-resident adjustment

105.1%

105.1%

105.1%

105.1%

FY

Earned income tax credit (Millions)

$5.031

$5.210

$5.290

$5.311

CY

Elderly homeowner/renter credits (Millions)

$7.385

$7.131

$6.846

$6.621

CY

All other credits (Millions)

$65.174

$66.145

$68.763

$72.274

FY

Audit, penalty & interest collections (Millions)

$53.397

$56.280

$58.577

Revenue Interim Committee Adjustment (Millions)

-$30.160

-$30.160

-$30.160

 

Property Tax

FY

Class 1 taxable value (Millions)

$4.745

$5.747

$5.014

FY

Class 2 taxable value (Millions)

$31.695

$30.409

$26.528

FY

Class 3 taxable value (Millions)

$157.219

$162.025

$161.889

FY

Class 4 taxable value (Millions)

$1,987.610

$2,196.052

$2,236.569

FY

Class 5 taxable value (Millions)

$50.769

$51.877

$53.009

FY

Class 7 taxable value (Millions)

$0.003

$0.003

$0.003

FY

Class 8 taxable value (Millions)

$163.006

$163.657

$164.311

FY

Class 9 taxable value (Millions)

$535.254

$567.495

$601.677

FY

Class 10 taxable value (Millions)

$4.870

$4.858

$4.846

FY

Class 12 taxable value (Millions)

$101.163

$106.077

$110.907

FY

Class 13 taxable value (Millions)

$162.733

$158.349

$154.082

FY

Class 14 taxable value (Millions)

$17.567

$17.693

$17.819

FY

Class 15 taxable value (Millions)

$1.830

$1.751

$1.675

FY

Abatement value (Millions)

$26.392

$28.422

$29.015

FY

TIF Value (Millions)

$49.924

$52.985

$53.311

 

Corporation Income Tax

CY

WTI price ($/bbl)

$38.7

$46.0

$54.4

$56.1

CY

Domestic crude price ($/bbl)

$39.4

$45.7

$54.3

$54.9

CY

Montana retail sales (Millions)

$18,693

$19,623

$19,481

$19,842

CY

Montana median home price ($)

$270,945

$278,815

$288,384

$298,767

CY

Montana population (Thousands)

1,075.4

1,079.8

1,084.6

1,089.5

CY

Wholesale employment (Thousands)

17.2

17.5

18.3

18.8

CY

3-month commercial paper

0.6%

0.2%

0.3%

0.3%

FY

Audit, penalty & interest collections (Millions)

$17.056

$16.174

$16.897

FY

Refunds (Millions)

-$27.290

-$25.879

-$27.035

 

Vehicles Vehicle Taxes & Fees

FY

Montana new vehicle sales (Thousands)

 49.026

54.069

56.677

FY

US new vehicle sales (Millions)

 15.211

15.593

15.782

FY

US total vehicle stock (Millions)

 291.245

 293.240

 295.319

 

Oil & Natural Gas Production Tax

CY

WTI price ($/bbl)

$38.661

 $46.040

 $54.416

 $56.098

CY

Montana oil price ratio

0.880

 0.880

 0.880

 0.880

CY

Total oil production (Million barrels)

18.294

 15.789

 14.636

 13.639

CY

Holiday oil production (Million barrels)

2.472

 0.108

 0.098

 0.087

CY

Henry Hub price ($/MCF)

$1.963

 $3.207

 $2.821

 $3.163

CY

Montana natural gas price ratio

0.626

 0.626

 0.626

 0.626

CY

Total natural gas production (Million MCFs)

86.564

 81.110

 78.513

 73.134

CY

Holiday natural gas production (Million MCFs)

3.402

 0.343

 0.332

 0.309

 

Insurance Tax & License Fees

FY

Montana PCE Finance & Insurance (Millions)

 $3,437

 $3,171

 $3,285

 

 

 

Other Business Taxes

Driver's License Fee

CY

Montana population age 16 and over (Millions)

 0.877

 0.882

 0.887

 

Investment License Fee

FY

Montana PCE Finance & Insurance (Millions)

 $3,437

 $3,171

 $3,285

 

Lodging Taxes

FY

US consumer spending on accommodations (Billions)

 $101

 $149

 $178

 

Public Contractors Tax

FY

Highway payments (Millions)

 $366

 $373

 $381

FY

Other payments (Millions)

 $258

 $264

 $270

 

Railroad Car Tax

FY

Montana retail sales (Millions)

 $18,076

 $18,237

 $19,606

 

Rental Car Sales Tax

FY

Montana PCE Transportation (Millions)

 $914

 $1,067

 $1,150

 

Telecommunications Excise Tax

FY

Montana population age 16 and over (Millions)

 0.875

 0.879

 0.885

CY

Landline %

 36%

 30%

 24%

 18%

CY

Cell Phone %

 96%

 96%

 96%

 96%

CY

Prepaid smartphone penetration

 40%

 40%

 40%

 40%

 

Other Natural Resource Taxes

Coal Severance Tax

CY

Price ($/Ton)

 $16.19

 $16.48

 $16.69

 $16.82

CY

Production (Million Tons)

 26.740

 25.711

 24.868

 24.061

 

Electrical Energy Tax

FY

Taxable Production (KWH)

 22,398

 21,115

 21,015

 

Metalliferous Mines Tax

CY

Price: Copper ($/lb)

 $2.65

 $3.04

 $3.06

 $3.07

CY

Price: Silver ($/oz)

 $20

 $17

 $17

 $17

CY

Price: Gold ($/oz)

 $1,750

 $1,590

 $1,568

 $1,546

CY

Price: Moly ($/lb)

 $10

 $10

 $9

 $9

CY

Price: Palladium ($/oz)

 $2,160

 $1,241

 $1,367

 $1,467

CY

Price: Platinum ($/oz)

 $867

 $1,000

 $1,025

 $1,051

 

US Mineral Royalty

FFY

Oil price ($/bbl)

 $45.04

 $40.44

 $36.30

 $32.59

FFY

Oil production (Million barrels)

 2.558

 2.441

 2.324

 2.207

FFY

Coal price ($/Ton)

 $22.99

 $23.10

 $23.32

 $23.43

FFY

Coal production (Million Tons)

 14.010

 3.038

 12.578

 12.158

FFY

Natural gas price ($/MCF)

 $2.40

 $2.37

 $2.34

 $2.32

FFY

Natural gas production (Million MCFs)

 9.573

 8.695

 7.817

 6.940

FFY

Rent and bonus payments (Millions)

 $2.598

 $2.598

 $2.598

 $2.598

 

Wholesale Energy Tax

FY

Production (KWH)

 23,771

 23,726

 23,761

 

Other Interest Earnings

Coal Trust Interest

FY

Short term interest rates

 0.30%

 0.17%

 0.18%

FY

Long term interest rates

 3.40%

 3.10%

 2.79%

 

 

Treasury Cash Account Interest

FY

Short term interest rates

 0.30%

 0.17%

 0.18%

FY

Average balance (Millions)

 $929

 $933

 $934

 

Other Consumption Taxes

Beer Tax

FY

Montana PCE food (Millions)

 $5,456

 $5,781

 $6,127

FY

Montana population age 21 and above (Millions)

 0.811

 0.816

 0.821

 

Cigarette Tax

FY

Consumer spending on tobacco (Millions)

 $105

 $103

 $105

FY

CPI for tobacco

 140

 144

 151

FY

Montana population age 18 and above (Millions)

 0.851

 0.856

 0.861

 

Liquor Excise & License Tax

FY

Montana PCE food (Millions)

 $5,456

 $5,781

 $6,127

 

Liquor Profits

FY

Montana PCE food (Millions)

 $5,456

 $5,781

 $6,127

Revenue Interim Committee Adjustment (Millions)

 -$1.961

 -$1.961

 -$1.961

 

Lottery Profits

FY

Montana population age 18 and above (Millions)

 0.851

 0.856

 0.861

FY

Short term interest rates

 0.30%

 0.17%

 0.18%

Revenue Interim Committee Adjustment (Millions)

 -$1.961

 -$1.961

 -$1.961

 

Tobacco Tax

FY

Montana population age 18 and above (Millions)

 0.851

 0.856

 0.861

FY

Montana PCE (Millions)

 $65,173

 $68,287

 $71,623

 

Wine Tax

FY

Montana population age 21 and above (Millions)

 0.811

 0.816

 0.821

 

Other Sources

All Other Revenue

FY

Time series

 2021

 2022

 2023

 

Highway Patrol Fines

FY

Time series

 2021

 2022

 2023

 

Nursing Facilities Fee

FY

Time series

 2021

 2022

 2023

 

Public Institution Reimbursements

FY

Montana nursing facility residents

 3,732

 3,625

 3,518

 

Tobacco Settlement

FY

Volume (Millions)

 0.187

 0.179

 0.172

FY

Inflation

 3.0%

 3.0%

 3.0%

 

SELECTED NONGENERAL FUND REVENUE

The estimates for selected nongeneral fund revenue for fiscal year 2021 and the 2022-2023 biennium are based on the assumptions of a continuation of Montana law as it existed on January 1, 2021. The revenue estimates contained in the following tables are based on the assumptions listed in the tables that follow the nongeneral fund estimates and the assumptions for each nongeneral fund revenue source contained in the "Legislative Budget Analysis, 2023 Biennium, Volume 2 -- Revenue Estimates" prepared by the Legislative Fiscal Division.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current Law

Selected Nongeneral Fund Revenue Estimates

(In Millions of Dollars)

Actual

Estimated

Estimated

Estimated

Source of Revenue

FY 2020

FY 2021

FY 2022

FY 2023

Property Tax: 6 Mill

$19.877

$20.303

$21.584

$22.007

Natural Resource Taxes

Federal Forest Receipts

 13.801

 13.111

 3.760

 3.917

Resource Indemnity Tax

 2.269

 2.427

 2.213

 2.061

Natural Resource Taxes Subtotal

 16.070

 15.538

 5.974

 5.978

Interest Earnings

Capital Land Grant Interest and Income

 2.194

 1.844

 1.815

 1.939

Common School Interest and Income

 41.186

 41.986

 41.478

 41.917

Cultural Trust Interest

 0.480

 0.483

 0.445

 0.406

Deaf & Blind Interest and Income

 0.307

 0.362

 0.357

 0.360

Economic Development Trust

 3.782

 3.928

 4.121

 3.406

Parks Trust Interest

 0.888

 0.874

 0.804

 0.735

Pine Hills Interest and Income

 0.379

 0.390

 0.403

 0.423

Regional Water Trust Interest

 3.153

 3.093

 2.830

 2.574

Resource Indemnity Trust Interest

 3.557

 3.504

 3.186

 2.867

School Facilities Trust Interest

 1.550

 1.407

 1.830

 2.126

Tobacco Trust Interest

 9.253

 8.939

 8.166

 7.417

Treasure State Endowment Trust Interest

 7.725

 7.884

 8.250

 7.845

Interest Earnings Subtotal

 74.456

 74.694

 73.685

 72.015

Consumption Taxes

Diesel Tax

 90.549

 85.784

 85.326

 85.883

Gasoline Tax

 171.584

 172.672

 176.112

 179.586

GVW and Other Fees

 35.555

 35.807

 36.000

 36.193

Marijuana Tax

 -

 -

 14.313

 25.698

Consumption Taxes Subtotal

 297.688

 294.262

 311.751

 327.360

Total of Selected Nongeneral Fund Sources

$408.091

$404.798

$412.994

$427.360

 

SELECTED ASSUMPTIONS FOR NONGENERAL FUND REVENUE ESTIMATES

Year   Assumption                                         2021    2022    2023

Property Tax: 6 Mill

FY

Taxable Value (Millions)

$3,218.465

$3,465.993

$3,538.329

FY

TIF Value (Millions)

$26.392

$28.422

$29.015

FY

Abatement value (Millions)

$49.924

$52.985

$53.311

Natural Resource Taxes

Federal Forest Receipts

FY

Total Montana Receipts (Millions)

$13.111

$3.760

$3.917

 

Resource Indemnity Tax

FY

Coal Receipts (Millions)

$2.097

$1.920

$1.887

FY

Other Receipts (Millions)

$0.330

$0.293

$0.174

 

Interest Earnings

Capital Land Grant Interest and Income

FY

Lease Total (Millions)

$0.648

$0.674

$0.674

FY

Permanent Fund Total (Millions)

$2.224

$2.198

$2.323

FY

Administration Costs (Millions)

-$1.028

-$1.057

-$1.057

 

Common School Interest and Income

FY

TFBP Long Term Interest Rate

3.41%

3.11%

3.11%

FY

Short Term Interest Rate

0.30%

0.17%

0.18%

 

Cultural Trust Interest

FY

TFBP Long Term Interest Rate

3.37%

3.08%

2.79%

FY

Short Term Interest Rate

0.30%

0.17%

0.18%

 

Deaf & Blind Interest and Income

FY

TFBP Long Term Interest Rate

3.41%

3.11%

3.11%

FY

Short Term Interest Rate

0.30%

0.17%

0.18%

 

Economic Development Trust

FY

TFBP Long Term Interest Rate

3.33%

3.43%

2.77%

FY

Short Term Interest Rate

0.30%

0.17%

0.18%

 

Parks Trust Interest

FY

TFBP Long Term Interest Rate

3.37%

3.08%

2.79%

FY

Short Term Interest Rate

0.30%

0.17%

0.18%

 

Pine Hills Interest and Income

FY

TFBP Long Term Interest Rate

3.41%

3.11%

3.11%

FY

Short Term Interest Rate

0.30%

0.17%

0.18%

 

Regional Water Trust Interest

FY

TFBP Long Term Interest Rate

3.29%

3.01%

2.74%

FY

Short Term Interest Rate

0.30%

0.17%

0.18%

 

Resource Indemnity Trust Interest

FY

TFBP Long Term Interest Rate

3.50%

3.19%

2.87%

FY

Short Term Interest Rate

0.30%

0.17%

0.18%

 

School Facilities Trust Interest

FY

TFBP Long Term Interest Rate

3.81%

3.43%

3.05%

FY

Short Term Interest Rate

0.30%

0.17%

0.18%

 

Tobacco Trust Interest

FY

TFBP Long Term Interest Rate

3.30%

3.02%

2.74%

FY

Short Term Interest Rate

0.30%

0.17%

0.18%

 

Treasure State Endowment Trust Interest

FY

TFBP Long Term Interest Rate

3.32%

3.04%

2.76%

FY

Short Term Interest Rate

0.30%

0.17%

0.18%

Consumption Taxes

Diesel Tax

FY

Time Series

20192021

2022

2023

 

Gasoline Tax

FY

Time Series

2021

2022

2023

 

GVW and Other Fees

FY

Time Series

2021

2022

2023